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Looking Without Seeing: The Cognitive Gap in NTSB’s Potomac River Report

On January 29, 2025, PSA Airlines Flight 5342 — a Bombardier CRJ-700 on approach to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport — collided midair with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter (PAT25) over the Potomac River. All 64 persons on both aircraft perished. The NTSB’s subsequent investigation, published as Report AIR-26-02, spans over 380 pages and represents one of the most comprehensive accident analyses in recent years.

Yet despite its thoroughness, the report contains a fundamental analytical gap: the term “inattentional blindness” does not appear anywhere in the entire document.

This matters profoundly. The helicopter crew were looking through night vision goggles at a visual scene in which the approaching CRJ-700 — lights on, closing at combined speed — was physically present. They did not see it. The NTSB describes this failure in terms of workload, expectation bias, and equipment limitations. But these are symptoms. The underlying cognitive mechanism that explains why a crew can look directly at a threat without perceiving it has a name in human factors science: inattentional blindness.

What the NTSB Got Right

Credit where it is due. The NTSB report correctly identifies several human factors that contributed to this tragedy.

Addressed by NTSB

Expectation bias — The report explicitly identifies that the instructor pilot (IP) expected traffic from the right (runway 1 approach, used ~93% of the time), not from the left (runway 33 circling approach, used only 5-7% for northbound arrivals). This is Finding 29.

The report also thoroughly documents the 40-degree field of view limitation of ANVIS NVGs (versus approximately 180 degrees for normal human vision), the see-and-avoid doctrine’s inherent limitations, the blossom effect that makes converging aircraft appear stationary, and the high workload that left the IP with no spare cognitive capacity for traffic scanning. The controller performance analysis applies Endsley’s three-level situation awareness model effectively.

These are real and important findings. But they stop short of the cognitive root cause.

The Gaps: What the NTSB Did Not Address

The following diagrams illustrate the critical human factors mechanisms that the NTSB report fails to identify or adequately explore. Each represents a well-documented cognitive phenomenon directly relevant to this accident.

1. The Compound Field of View Problem

The NTSB treats the NVG’s 40-degree field of view as a fixed hardware constraint. What it fails to recognise is that cognitive task loading under NVGs narrows the effective attentional field even further. When a pilot is managing night NVG flight, instruction duties, terrain avoidance, route navigation, and instrument scanning simultaneously, the brain’s attentional spotlight contracts well within the already narrow physical field.

1
Compound Field of View Narrowing: Physical + Cognitive
Normal Human Vision
Unaided eye, relaxed scan
~180°
~180°
Full peripheral awareness
NVG Physical Limit
ANVIS AN/AVS-6 hardware
40°LOSTLOST
40°
78% of visual field gone
Cognitive Tunnelling
Task loading narrows further
~20°?NVG + terrain + instruments + instruction
<20°?
NOT addressed by NTSB
Key Finding: Flight 5342 moved outside the 40° NVG FOV in the final 30 seconds. But cognitive tunnelling likely meant the IP’s effective awareness was narrower still — the aircraft may have been outside his attentional field well before it left the physical FOV.
Figure 1 — Progressive narrowing from normal vision through NVG restriction to cognitive tunnelling

2. The NVG Light Suppression Paradox

Night vision goggles are engineered to suppress bright light sources to prevent tube blooming. But this means the CRJ-700’s bright landing lights and anti-collision strobes — which to the unaided eye would create a dramatically conspicuous and growing visual signal — were suppressed by the NVGs’ automatic gain control to appear as just another dim point of light amid the dense cultural lighting of the Washington, DC, skyline. The NVGs actively removed the conspicuity cue.

2
NVG Glare Suppression: How Bright Aircraft Lights Become Invisible
UNAIDED NIGHT VISION
◄ AIRCRAFT
Bright & growing
Aircraft STANDS OUT — bright, distinctive signal
THROUGH NVGs (ANVIS)
◄ AIRCRAFT?
Same as city lights
Aircraft INVISIBLE — gain-suppressed, indistinguishable
The Paradox: The safety feature designed to protect NVG tubes from blooming actively removes the natural conspicuity advantage of bright aircraft lights, making the approaching CRJ-700 visually identical to dozens of static cultural light sources.
Figure 2 — How NVG automatic gain control equalises bright aircraft lights with dim cultural lighting

3. The Inattentional Blindness Cascade

The NTSB describes each contributing factor in isolation. What it fails to do is connect them into a unified cognitive chain that traces how the IP ended up literally looking at the approaching aircraft without his brain registering its presence.

3
The Inattentional Blindness Cascade
High Visual Task Demand
NVG flight + instruction + terrain + route + instruments
+
NVG Physical Restriction
40° FOV; all targets = “points of light”
⚠ Cognitive Tunnelling
Effective attentional field narrows well below 40° — peripheral attention suppressed
⚠ Expectation Bias
IP expects runway 1 traffic (93%), not runway 33 (5-7%)
+
⚠ NVG Glare Suppression
Aircraft lights suppressed to match cultural lighting
❌ False Target ID + Confirmation Bias
IP identifies wrong target → “traffic in sight” → rote response locks false mental model
❌ Auditory Exclusion
Visual overload gates auditory processing — tablet alerts not registered; radio advisory processed at rote level only
🔴 INATTENTIONAL BLINDNESS
CRJ-700 is physically present in the visual scene but cognitively invisible. The IP is “looking without seeing.”
NTSB Gap: The report identifies individual boxes but never names or connects this cascade. “Inattentional blindness” does not appear in 380+ pages.
Figure 3 — The cognitive cascade from task loading to inattentional blindness

4. Auditory Exclusion: “Listening Without Hearing”

The NTSB attributes the crew’s failure to respond to alerts to ambient helicopter noise and the tablet not being integrated into helmets. But the deeper phenomenon is auditory exclusion — under extreme visual workload, the brain reduces auditory processing. The IP’s rote “traffic in sight” response is textbook evidence: words processed at a superficial, automatic level without genuine cognitive engagement.

4
Auditory Exclusion: Cognitive Resource Allocation
Normal Cognitive Load
Routine cruise flight
Visual 35%
Audio 25%
Spare 40%
Result: Advisory heard, processed, acted upon. Pilot genuinely acquires correct traffic.
PAT25 IP’s Cognitive Load
NVG night flight + instruction + route nav
Visual Overload 85%+
~10%
~5%
Result: Advisory heard but not processed. Rote “traffic in sight” without cognitive engagement. Tablet alerts gated out entirely.
NTSB Treatment: Blames ambient noise and tablet integration. The deeper issue: even louder, better-integrated alerts may not break through cognitive gating under extreme visual workload.
Figure 4 — Cognitive resource allocation under normal vs. overloaded conditions

5. Symptoms vs. Root Cognitive Cause

The following maps each observable behaviour the NTSB documents to the underlying cognitive mechanism it represents. The pattern is clear: while the NTSB is thorough in documenting what happened, it systematically fails to explain why at the cognitive level.

5
NTSB Analysis Gap: Symptoms vs. Root Cognitive Cause
What NTSB Describes (Symptoms)Root Cause NOT NamedIP identified wrong target among points of lightINATTENTIONAL BLINDNESS“Looking without seeing”Rote “traffic in sight” without acquisitionCONFIRMATION BIASAutomatic response locks false modelAircraft as “points of light” through NVGsNVG GLARE SUPPRESSION PARADOXConspicuity cue actively eliminated“Insufficient spare capacity” for scanningCOGNITIVE TUNNELLINGAttentional field narrower than physical FOVAlerts “could not be heard over noise”AUDITORY EXCLUSIONCognitive gating, not just noise volumeExpected runway 1 traffic, not runway 33EXPECTATION BIASAddressed by NTSB (Finding 29) ✔Controller desensitised to Conflict AlertsHABITUATION / ALERT BLINDNESSPartially addressedNot addressed by NTSBPartially addressedAddressed by NTSB
Figure 5 — Mapping NTSB-observed behaviours to unnamed cognitive root causes

6. The Blossom Effect + NVG Compound Problem

Aircraft on a collision course appear stationary — no angular movement cue. Only in the final seconds does the image “blossom” as range closes. Through NVGs, even this last-resort brightness-growth cue is suppressed by gain control.

6
The Blossom Effect + NVG Compound Problem
60 sec45 sec30 sec15 sec5 secIMPACTUnaided Eye:BLOSSOM!Growing brightness = alarm cueThrough NVGs:NO BLOSSOMGain control suppresses growth
Double Jeopardy: The blossom effect already makes collision-course aircraft nearly invisible until the last seconds. NVG gain control eliminates even the final brightness-growth cue. The pilot has no natural visual alarm.
Figure 6 — Unaided eye brightness growth vs. NVG gain-suppressed constant appearance

Conclusion: Why Naming the Mechanism Matters

The NTSB’s recommendations focus on systemic and technological fixes: ACAS X, ADS-B In, route redesign, position de-combining, SMS implementation. These are necessary and important. But because the report fails to identify inattentional blindness as a specific cognitive mechanism, it does not recommend cognitive human factors training for NVG operations, mandatory “break-set” techniques during high-workload phases, multi-sensory alerting that accounts for auditory exclusion (including haptic alerts), or research into NVG glare suppression’s impact on aircraft conspicuity.

The Central Finding

NTSB Report AIR-26-02 describes the exact manifestation of inattentional blindness across 380+ pages without ever using the term. This is not a semantic quibble — when the root cause is unnamed, the recommendations cannot target it. The crew did not fail to look. They failed to see. That distinction demands a fundamentally different set of interventions.

Capt. Amit Singh FRAeS is the author of Inattentional Blindness and Bias During Visual Scan and founder of Safety Matters.
Contact: Admin@safetymatters.co.in


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